I made a brief video this evening to quickly run through some key charts I'm following and where I see the big picture trends.
In energy, I cover crude oil futures, $XOP and $XLE.
In precious metals, I cover the charts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, as well as the S&P/Gold ratio. In mining stocks I review $GDX, the GDX/GDXJ ratio, Newmont Mining ($NEM) and Pan American Silver ($PAAS).
For currencies, I stick to the US Dollar ($DXY), looking and both daily and long term monthly charts.
In fixed income, I review the 20-year treasury ETF ($TLT), mortgage backed securities ($MBB), and high Yield corporate debt ($JNK)
In equities, I take a quick look at the S&P500 and and the micro caps ($RUMIC).
As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.
Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals and the price action we are seeing today.
11-15-19 Gold Price Update (Video)
Gold finally broke out of a bull wedge in late December following a four month (healthy) consolidation I had labeled as wave 4 of 5 in a five wave Elliott Wave pattern. This pattern has been neatly contained within a rising channel from the $1180 low in summer of 2018 to the September high of $1565 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high in 2011). The breakout occurred at rising channel support, and unless this is a truncated fifth, the length of the rise should target a move to the 78.6% retracement at ~$1700. Gold has some work to do to get there, and will likely consolidate/pull back as it works through supply between $1560-$1580.
The move is supported by strong confirmation throughout the mining complex, the breakout in silver, the overbought levels in the RSI (strong indication that the bulls are in control), the outperformance of junior miners relative to the producers, and a falling gold:silver ratio. The dollar has also shown recent weakness, breaking down from a multi-month channel, and is coiling into a multi-year symmetrical triangle that is likely to break strongly up or down before year end.
I would also add that gold has been outperforming the S&P 500 since September of 2018. This is not well publicized, especially as equities continue to make all-time highs, but an important development, to be sure.
Lastly, I tweeted this chart of gold performance by months for the past 20 years. It is worth noting that January tends to be a very strong month for gold.
Silver has lagged gold for six years but is finally showing some signs of strength. The gold:silver ratio has fallen from a peak of 93 in July to a near term low of 79 in September, and has pulled back to 86 in recent week. However, the trend is now down, and the recent move is forming a bear flag that should take the ratio lower (good for the entire metals complex).
Silver has followed a similar pattern to gold, moving in a rising channel from the September ’18 low. A strong close above 18.78 would signal that a move towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 22 is the likely terminal move for Wave 5.
Platinum has underperformed the sector for years. Price has flirted with the psychologically significant $1000 level twice now since September. However, the key level for platinum is $10-40-$1050. A break above that level would set up a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1300.
Palladium has been the all star of the metals complex, even through the bearish six year trough for gold. Price skyrocketed to just under $2,000/ounce as it met with resistance at the 361.8% Fibonacci extension and multiple rising channel resistance. If Palladium can breakout here, the next price target is $2250.
I will not outline charts here of every mining stock I cover, but as a brief overview, see the charts below of GDX (Gold Miners ETF), PAAS (Pan American Silver), and Newmont Gold (NEM).
GDX has mirrored the technical pattern in gold. The key level is 31.50. A strong close above that level should usher in a swift move to 39.
Pan American has already broken out well above former resistance and seems poised for an eventual retest of all-time highs at 37, likely pausing at 29 along the way.
Newmont is just now breaking above the 43.30, but not definitively. A clean break above that level would set up a run to 51.
As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions. Have a great weekend!
I produced this video on the gold and silver mining sector last night, and as of this morning gold is up significantly and all of the mining stocks continue to follow through. Gold (see chart above) just broke above horizontal resistance and is now looking to break up from the August downtrend channel. A move above $1495 would resume the uptrend from 4Q18, where channel support recently held. As presented in early November, I continue to believe this is a Wave 4 of 5, and that we will retest the highs at $1560-$1580. A close above $1495 would confirm it.
$GDX $GDXJ $ABX $NEM $XME $WPM $GOLD.V
In this video, I analyze the Bitcoin chart. Opinions on bitcoin tend to be very polarized; some believe bitcoin will rise to over $100,000 per coin, or even a million dollars. Others believe bitcoin is head for zero and into the dustbin of history. In this video I try to take a balanced view and simply look at the long term chart and where price is trending. I overlay this chart with Fibonacci and Elliott Wave analysis to arrive at the conclusion that bitcoin is still very much in a long term uptrend.
What do you think? We'd love to hear your feedback.
*During holiday breaks please note that we do "hold" packages from shipping on certain days for security reasons (packages lingering in sort facilities around holidays pose higher security risks). We believe this grace period is in the customer's best interest, and could potentially impact the 3-day shipping window slightly.
Picking up from last week’s video, I wanted to do a deep dive into gold, particularly because there is a diversity of opinions regarding whether we break down from here or we make another leg higher. In this video, I address a recent chart from JC Parets at All Star Charts and my opinion regarding his analysis in the short term.
The big question is whether gold has completed a fifth wave from the $1170 low (setting up and A-B-C correction), or whether the recent high was only wave 3, setting up a fifth wave higher. I am of the latter opinion.
As always, we would love to hear your feedback whether you agree or disagree.
In this week's video I take a look at the charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper and offer some thoughts on where I see prices moving next. In the case of gold, which has enjoyed a fantastic run-up from $1180 to $1570 this year (in the process breaking out of a six year base), price is pulling back and bull flagging at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Does it make a push down to $1400 to backtest the entire move? Will silver find support at $16.60 or are we moving lower? Will palladium continue its historic march hire, or will it meet resistance at future levels?
I discuss all this and more in today's ten minute video. As always, whether you agree or disagree with my analysis, I would love to hear your feedback.
Demand for gold as a reserve asset strengthened considerably in 2018, rising by 74% compared to 2017, in response to the geopolitical and macro-economic environment. It also broadened. Our flagship training programme for reserve managers, held in conjunction with the National University of Singapore, received a record number of applications from central banks globally keen to learn how gold can help them meet their safety, liquidity and other objectives. Our mid-year central bank survey reported that one-fifth of central banks surveyed intended to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months, with none planning a decrease.
Republic Metals, founded in 1980, is one of the largest precious metals refiners in the world, and an LBMA and COMEX good delivery producer. The company's private minting business recently accounted for nearly 70% of North American privately minted production.
On November 5th, after months of attempting to sell the business to Valcambi, Republic Metals filed for Chapter 11. The bankruptcy resulted from an audit that revealed more than $100M in missing inventory. For more information, please refer to this article: Bankruptcy judge approves case-management procedures for Republic Metals
Thankfully, we have very limited exposure in the bankruptcy proceedings. Other precious metals companies are not so fortunate. We have sold Republic Metals branded bars for several years, and we will continue to make a two-way market for their products, but we will no longer actively sell their products on our website.
However, Republic Metals minted our Texas Gold Rounds and Texas Mint Gold Bars. As a result of the bankruptcy, we will be minting these products through Sunshine Mint (SMI) going forward, the same company that manufactures blanks for the United States Mint. This process will take time, and we will likely be out of stock on Texas Mint gold products for several months. We will send out communications as soon as these products again become available. Silver products are minted elsewhere and inventories remain unaffected.
We greatly appreciate your patience and understanding.
President & Co-founder
Texas Precious Metals