General
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August 20, 2020
In a stark reversal from the collapse of nearly every market just six months ago, the winds of inflation have pushed the sails of those same markets back to new (or near) all-time highs. The rebound from Covid has been a V-shaped recovery, not an L-shaped, W-shaped, U-shaped, or some-other-letter shaped recovery. The move in asset prices should not be conflated with an underlying economic return to normalcy - far from it. The rebound is simply a commentary on price.
Let’s start with my favorite markets - precious metals:
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August 03, 2020
The precious metals market is very clearly in a secular uptrend and prices look poised for further significant upside into the end of the year. My technical view is that in the short term prices have gotten a bit extended and that a pull back/consolidation is due (and healthy) to build the base for the next leg higher.
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May 07, 2020
It has been over a month since my last entry on the markets, and aside from a few Twitter posts, most of my analysis has been confined to my desktop. The impact of the coronavirus on the retail precious metals market has been historic, with dueling supply and demand shocks, and as president of Texas Precious Metals, my time has been consumed by day-to-day operations. I finally have a bit of a respite this afternoon to share a few thoughts on the metals markets.
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April 02, 2020
By Elena Mazneva on Bloomberg.com
When people are worried about the future they turn to gold to protect their savings. That’s rarely been more true than today.
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March 25, 2020
Given the extreme recent demand in the precious metals markets, this is the first opportunity I have had to reflect on the charts. For those interested in my thoughts on rising premiums and the cause for falling spot metal prices in early March, please refer to the articles linked.
I want to review price action in gold. Below is the long term, 40-year semi-log chart of gold weekly futures. I have drawn my fibonacci levels from the secondary high in 1980 ($720) to the bottom in 2001 ($250). The story is as follows:- Following a 20-year bear market, gold began its bull market after 9/11, with price finally retesting the secondary high at $720 before a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
- Support held there, and a second leg to a new all-time high at $1030 (161.8% extension) commenced before a retest of the $720 level at the 2008 bottom of the Great Financial Crisis (formerly resistance, now support).
- The subsequent bull move took gold to new all-time highs at $1910, stopping perfectly at the 361.8% fibonacci extension.
- The ensuing bear market backtested all the way to the prior peak at $1030 (161.8 extension) before finally breaking above the 261.8 extension in August of 2019.
- Since August, gold has peaked at $1700, and the recent liquidity driven sell-off has simply backtested the breakout at $1450 (261.8 extension), where we have seen a powerful and historic rally this week of over $250 in two days.
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March 20, 2020
Dear customers,
I would like to offer you one final update for the week.
Before I begin, my team has requested that I send a big ’Thank You’ to all of you who have called in this past week. In the midst of a very challenging week, with slower-than-usual response times, changes to billing and shipping methods, out-of-stock inventory, and other inconveniences - in what is admittedly a stressful time for many people - nearly every customer has been gracious, patient, accommodating, and diligent in providing information. We appreciate y'all. Personally, I want to especially recognize our accounting manager, Kris Hauptman, who has been working day and night (sometimes until 4am) taking personal responsibility for processing all of your payments. Thank you Kris!
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March 18, 2020
In response to my update yesterday - Demand Shock: The Forces Behind Rising Premiums - many of you sought to know an answer to the question: why are prices falling if demand is so unprecedented? I will seek to explain below. To clarify, yesterday I wrote about premiums; today I am writing about “spot price.”
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March 17, 2020
An Explanation of Rising Premiums
Most of you are now aware that the inventory of most precious metals dealers has evaporated. Premiums on common products have skyrocketed. I am writing this to offer some insights into these price changes so that you can make informed decisions. I will use the US Mint as the proxy for all mints.
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March 13, 2020
Dear TPM clients,
The market dynamics are changing rapidly, and the physical inventory situation industry-wide has worsened considerably since my message yesterday. I want to remind each of you that we will only sell products that we have in stock. We will not forward sell demand and ship after long delays. The future supply chain is uncertain at this point and we can only guarantee what we have in stock. Therefore, I need to apprise you of two important announcements.
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March 13, 2020
Dear TPM Clients,
A long running policy of Texas Precious Metals has been "If we don't have it, we don't sell it." Over the last few days the supply of most common items has greatly decreased, and we are only selling what we have in stock. We will not forward sell.