The sell off in markets accelerated by coronavirus and the global reaction to curtail the pandemic has left no prisoners, as nearly all asset classes are selling off in a flight to liquidity. As large institutions face margin calls, they are forced to close positions or raise cash by selling anything and everything that is liquid. Gold and silver - the “safe haven” assets - are no exception. I would remind readers that in the global financial crisis gold fell 27% and silver fell 55% in nominal terms. Gold outperformed equities on a relative basis, but silver actually underperformed.
As a health and safety precaution we will be closing our client lounge for the next thirty days. If you wish to purchase or sell metals, please contact our trading desk at 361-594-3624. We will either ship items we sell to you or arrange shipment for items we buy back from clients.
Texas Precious Metals Depository will remain open for clients to retrieve or drop off contents during this time. We appreciate your understanding.
The last two weeks have been extremely volatile in the markets, and for the first time in a long time my friends and family have called to inquire about “what is going on in the markets?” Coronavirus contagion fears, coinciding with all-time highs in the markets, has been the scapegoat for a rapid, deflationary decline across nearly all markets except bonds, which resiliently continued to fetch a bid. Even the US Dollar, traditionally a safe haven in deflationary swoons, declined.
Here is how I see the markets:
Price action in gold has traded in a narrow window over the past few weeks, winding into a tight coil as it begins to consolidate for another leg higher. The wave counts suggests that gold is in the early stages of a Wave 5. In the chart above, the key near term level to watch to the downside is $1540. This level served as resistance in September 2019, and has been support for the last month. This level also roughly coincides with rising support from the uptrend channel that commenced in August 2018.
Gold bugs should be pleased with the monthly performance of gold in January. The definitive monthly break of the $1520 level, which had acted as strong monthly support six times between 2011-2013, before serving as resistance during this recent consolidation period between August and December, has sent a bullish longer term signal to the market.
In this video, I review key technicals in the US housing market, specifically the real estate ETF REZ, home construction ETF ITB, mortgage rates and lumber. I also explore some key demographic trends that could help fuel the rise in the US housing market.
In this video I take a look at the prevailing long and short term trends in the price of silver. While the decade-long trend remains down, the one year trend remains up. Yesterday’s .60 drop in price now has silver testing rising channel support from the bottom in May 2019. Bulls will want to see this price hold for another leg higher. If price breaks down from this rising support, the key levels are 16.90 and 16.20. Bulls especially need silver to remain above 16.20 for the longer term bullish picture to remain in play.
In early January I got very bullish copper as price was breaking out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle. The trade worked well initially, but price subsequently reversed and fell precipitously. In this video, I take a look at this price action, explain how I build a chart, and what the copper price means for the commodities sector.
Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals and the price action we are seeing today.