Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals and the price action we are seeing today.
I produced this video on the gold and silver mining sector last night, and as of this morning gold is up significantly and all of the mining stocks continue to follow through. Gold (see chart above) just broke above horizontal resistance and is now looking to break up from the August downtrend channel. A move above $1495 would resume the uptrend from 4Q18, where channel support recently held. As presented in early November, I continue to believe this is a Wave 4 of 5, and that we will retest the highs at $1560-$1580. A close above $1495 would confirm it.
$GDX $GDXJ $ABX $NEM $XME $WPM $GOLD.V
In this video, I analyze the Bitcoin chart. Opinions on bitcoin tend to be very polarized; some believe bitcoin will rise to over $100,000 per coin, or even a million dollars. Others believe bitcoin is head for zero and into the dustbin of history. In this video I try to take a balanced view and simply look at the long term chart and where price is trending. I overlay this chart with Fibonacci and Elliott Wave analysis to arrive at the conclusion that bitcoin is still very much in a long term uptrend.
What do you think? We'd love to hear your feedback.
In this video, I analyze the S&P500 chart, which is now meeting up with 20-year long term resistance and the upper bound of its year long channel, but is also breaking out above the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the 2007 peak to the 2009 bottom in equities. My short term view is bearish, as I think overhead resistance is stout and the RSI is overbought. However, longer term, the break above the 261.8% extension is significant and supportive of higher equity prices in the coming months.
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Picking up from last week’s video, I wanted to do a deep dive into gold, particularly because there is a diversity of opinions regarding whether we break down from here or we make another leg higher. In this video, I address a recent chart from JC Parets at All Star Charts and my opinion regarding his analysis in the short term.
The big question is whether gold has completed a fifth wave from the $1170 low (setting up and A-B-C correction), or whether the recent high was only wave 3, setting up a fifth wave higher. I am of the latter opinion.
As always, we would love to hear your feedback whether you agree or disagree.
In this week's video I take a look at the charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper and offer some thoughts on where I see prices moving next. In the case of gold, which has enjoyed a fantastic run-up from $1180 to $1570 this year (in the process breaking out of a six year base), price is pulling back and bull flagging at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Does it make a push down to $1400 to backtest the entire move? Will silver find support at $16.60 or are we moving lower? Will palladium continue its historic march hire, or will it meet resistance at future levels?
I discuss all this and more in today's ten minute video. As always, whether you agree or disagree with my analysis, I would love to hear your feedback.
This compares with a relatively weak Q1 2018, when demand sank to a three-year low of just 984.2t. Central bank buying continued apace: global gold reserves grew by 145.5t. Gold-backed ETFs also saw growth: quarterly inflows into those products grew by 49% to 40.3t. Total bar and coin investment weakened a fraction to 257.8t (-1%), due to a fall in demand for gold bars; official gold coin buying grew 12% to 56.1t. Jewellery demand was a touch stronger y-o-y at 530.3t, chiefly due to improvement in India’s market. The volume of gold used in technology dipped to a two-year low of 79.3t, hit by slower economic growth. The supply of gold in Q1 was virtually unchanged, just 3t lower y-o-y at 1,150t.