Texas Precious Metals

  • [VIDEO] Market Update – Gold, Oil, Equities, Bonds, and USD – Jan 08, 2020

    Dollar Movement Will be Key in 2020

    I made a brief video this evening to quickly run through some key charts I'm following and where I see the big picture trends.

    Energy

    In energy, I cover crude oil futures, $XOP and $XLE.

    Precious Metals

    In precious metals, I cover the charts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, as well as the S&P/Gold ratio. In mining stocks I review $GDX, the GDX/GDXJ ratio, Newmont Mining ($NEM) and Pan American Silver ($PAAS).

    Currencies

    For currencies, I stick to the US Dollar ($DXY), looking and both daily and long term monthly charts.

    Fixed Income

    In fixed income, I review the 20-year treasury ETF ($TLT), mortgage backed securities ($MBB), and high Yield corporate debt ($JNK)

    Equities

    In equities, I take a quick look at the S&P500 and and the micro caps ($RUMIC).

    As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions.

  • Strong Move for Metals to Open 2020

    Price Prepping for New 7-Yr Highs?

    Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals and the price action we are seeing today.

    12-03-19 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Price Update (Video)

    11-15-19 Gold Price Update (Video)

    GOLD

    Gold finally broke out of a bull wedge in late December following a four month (healthy) consolidation I had labeled as wave 4 of 5 in a five wave Elliott Wave pattern. This pattern has been neatly contained within a rising channel from the $1180 low in summer of 2018 to the September high of $1565 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high in 2011). The breakout occurred at rising channel support, and unless this is a truncated fifth, the length of the rise should target a move to the 78.6% retracement at ~$1700. Gold has some work to do to get there, and will likely consolidate/pull back as it works through supply between $1560-$1580.

    Gold Chart

    The move is supported by strong confirmation throughout the mining complex, the breakout in silver, the overbought levels in the RSI (strong indication that the bulls are in control), the outperformance of junior miners relative to the producers, and a falling gold:silver ratio. The dollar has also shown recent weakness, breaking down from a multi-month channel, and is coiling into a multi-year symmetrical triangle that is likely to break strongly up or down before year end.

    DXY-Long Term

    I would also add that gold has been outperforming the S&P 500 since September of 2018. This is not well publicized, especially as equities continue to make all-time highs, but an important development, to be sure.

    SP500 Gold Ratio

    Lastly, I tweeted this chart of gold performance by months for the past 20 years. It is worth noting that January tends to be a very strong month for gold.

    SILVER

    Silver has lagged gold for six years but is finally showing some signs of strength. The gold:silver ratio has fallen from a peak of 93 in July to a near term low of 79 in September, and has pulled back to 86 in recent week. However, the trend is now down, and the recent move is forming a bear flag that should take the ratio lower (good for the entire metals complex).

    GSR

    Silver has followed a similar pattern to gold, moving in a rising channel from the September ’18 low. A strong close above 18.78 would signal that a move towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 22 is the likely terminal move for Wave 5.

    SILVER 1-03-20

    PLATINUM

    Platinum has underperformed the sector for years. Price has flirted with the psychologically significant $1000 level twice now since September. However, the key level for platinum is $10-40-$1050. A break above that level would set up a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1300.

    Platinum

    PALLADIUM

    Palladium has been the all star of the metals complex, even through the bearish six year trough for gold. Price skyrocketed to just under $2,000/ounce as it met with resistance at the 361.8% Fibonacci extension and multiple rising channel resistance. If Palladium can breakout here, the next price target is $2250.

    Palladium

    MINING STOCKS

    I will not outline charts here of every mining stock I cover, but as a brief overview, see the charts below of GDX (Gold Miners ETF), PAAS (Pan American Silver), and Newmont Gold (NEM).

    GDX has mirrored the technical pattern in gold. The key level is 31.50. A strong close above that level should usher in a swift move to 39.

    GDX

    Pan American has already broken out well above former resistance and seems poised for an eventual retest of all-time highs at 37, likely pausing at 29 along the way.

    PAAS

    Newmont is just now breaking above the 43.30, but not definitively. A clean break above that level would set up a run to 51.

    NEM

    As always, I hope this is helpful, and I welcome any feedback or questions. Have a great weekend!

  • [VIDEO] Gold and Silver Mining Stocks Price Update

    Mining Stocks Leading Gold Higher?

    I produced this video on the gold and silver mining sector last night, and as of this morning gold is up significantly and all of the mining stocks continue to follow through. Gold (see chart above) just broke above horizontal resistance and is now looking to break up from the August downtrend channel. A move above $1495 would resume the uptrend from 4Q18, where channel support recently held. As presented in early November, I continue to believe this is a Wave 4 of 5, and that we will retest the highs at $1560-$1580. A close above $1495 would confirm it.

    In the video below, I cover price action in some key mining stocks as well as the gold:silver ratio and the S&P:gold ratio. If gold is going to make another push to $1560-$1580, we want to see miners lead the way. Thus far, they are showing strength, which is a positive sign for bulls.
    Some of the stocks covered in this video:

    $GDX $GDXJ $ABX $NEM $XME $WPM $GOLD.V

  • [VIDEO] Bitcoin Price – This is the Only Chart that Matters

    Bitcoin Remains Above Long Term Trend line

    In this video, I analyze the Bitcoin chart. Opinions on bitcoin tend to be very polarized; some believe bitcoin will rise to over $100,000 per coin, or even a million dollars. Others believe bitcoin is head for zero and into the dustbin of history. In this video I try to take a balanced view and simply look at the long term chart and where price is trending. I overlay this chart with Fibonacci and Elliott Wave analysis to arrive at the conclusion that bitcoin is still very much in a long term uptrend.

    What do you think? We'd love to hear your feedback.

  • [VIDEO] SP500 Chart Update, Nov 19, 2019

    S&P500 Meeting Up with Long Term Resistance

    In this video, I analyze the S&P500 chart, which is now meeting up with 20-year long term resistance and the upper bound of its year long channel, but is also breaking out above the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the 2007 peak to the 2009 bottom in equities. My short term view is bearish, as I think overhead resistance is stout and the RSI is overbought. However, longer term, the break above the 261.8% extension is significant and supportive of higher equity prices in the coming months.

  • Thanksgiving Holiday Schedule - 2019

    *During holiday breaks please note that we do "hold" packages from shipping on certain days for security reasons (packages lingering in sort facilities around holidays pose higher security risks). We believe this grace period is in the customer's best interest, and could potentially impact the 3-day shipping window slightly.

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  • [VIDEO] Gold Price Update, Nov 15, 2019

    Gold Price – Breakdown, or Another Leg Higher?

    Picking up from last week’s video, I wanted to do a deep dive into gold, particularly because there is a diversity of opinions regarding whether we break down from here or we make another leg higher. In this video, I address a recent chart from JC Parets at All Star Charts and my opinion regarding his analysis in the short term.

    The big question is whether gold has completed a fifth wave from the $1170 low (setting up and A-B-C correction), or whether the recent high was only wave 3, setting up a fifth wave higher. I am of the latter opinion.

    As always, we would love to hear your feedback whether you agree or disagree.

  • Gold Retail Market Insights

    Gold Retail Market Insights presents the views of 18,000 people toward gold. Explore buying patterns and attitudes in their new gold market analysis. We thought it was a great read, and we hope you do as well.

  • [VIDEO] Precious Metals Price Update, Nov 08, 2019

    Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper

    In this week's video I take a look at the charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper and offer some thoughts on where I see prices moving next. In the case of gold, which has enjoyed a fantastic run-up from $1180 to $1570 this year (in the process breaking out of a six year base), price is pulling back and bull flagging at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Does it make a push down to $1400 to backtest the entire move? Will silver find support at $16.60 or are we moving lower? Will palladium continue its historic march hire, or will it meet resistance at future levels?

    I discuss all this and more in today's ten minute video. As always, whether you agree or disagree with my analysis, I would love to hear your feedback.

  • Gold Demand Trends Q1 2019

    This compares with a relatively weak Q1 2018, when demand sank to a three-year low of just 984.2t. Central bank buying continued apace: global gold reserves grew by 145.5t. Gold-backed ETFs also saw growth: quarterly inflows into those products grew by 49% to 40.3t. Total bar and coin investment weakened a fraction to 257.8t (-1%), due to a fall in demand for gold bars; official gold coin buying grew 12% to 56.1t. Jewellery demand was a touch stronger y-o-y at 530.3t, chiefly due to improvement in India’s market. The volume of gold used in technology dipped to a two-year low of 79.3t, hit by slower economic growth. The supply of gold in Q1 was virtually unchanged, just 3t lower y-o-y at 1,150t.

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